April 05, 2010
Golf Practice-zine Newsletter for March 2010
Happy Easter! and thanks for signing up to receive the March 2010 issue (#22) of the Newsletter. I know, I know, it's late, but I'm still calling it the March Newsletter in honour of the month when most of the writing actually took place. Totally logical. This month we've got: a new putting stat, James Lepp and his Kikkor shoes, a "new" yellow golf ball from Srixon, an update on Playability Factors for 2010 irons and Tiger's latest installment at being reborn or, we gotta believe.
Here is the lineup this issue:
- Golf's Data Maniacs - A New Putting Stat
- James Lepp's Kikkor Shoes
- Srixon's Yellow Ball
- New Irons - Ranking Update
- Tiger's Coming Out Party
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1. Golf's Data Maniacs - A New Putting Stat
Shotlink has created a landslide of data on the PGA Tour. Since 2003, when Shotlink started on tour, the company has employed up to 350 to capture almost 600 variables on every shot played by every player at every Tour event. The on course, real-time stats gathering has fed announcers with juicy tidbits like how many putts Vijay has missed from inside 8 feet this round, or precisely how far shots are from the hole, but nobody has begun to systematically analyze this data warehouse.
Until now.
Stats guys abound in every sport. Golf is no different -- they are behind every pool at every major; at the Tour stats summary on the web and at Ponte Vedre HQ in Florida. Stats geeks at MIT have begun to crunch the data to simulate and to make inferences about player performance measurements. They've developed complex formulae to incorporate Shotlinks mass of info into statistics that account for variables that more accurately measure real putting performance. Now that they got this stuff, the results are very interesting.
There's a great article at the Wall Street Journal by John Paul Newport ( A Stat is Born: Golf's New Way to Measure Putting). The new methodologies used to obtain the putting stats are explained in detail.
Old statistics to measure putt performance had their weaknesses:
- Putts per round:, is flawed because a player can miss a lot of greens in regulation, chip the ball close and one putt more greens than a player who hits the green and two-putts.
- Average feet of putts holed per round: distorts reality by leaving the impression that putters who are excellent lag putters, leaving the ball close after long first putts, will show shorter distances of putts made in a round.
The new stat produced by the MIT research is called Putts Gained Per Round the calculations used to crunch the data were complex, but the results offer a more realistic comparison of player putting skills.
New, more meaningful putting statistics were definitely needed. The new stat needs to:
- incorporate the difficulty of the greens being played. Different courses have different degrees of difficulty; greens are a key factor in separating good players from the rest. This is where putting skill really count.
- factor in the distance that players left their ball from the hole on shots into the green. Your putting performance relies heavily on how good you are at placing the ball close to the hole. One good shot can often lead to another (good putt).
MIT researchers have driven deep into the data, applying advanced statistical techniques based on historical data to derive a baseline of expected putting results for each player. The model then goes on to compare their actual Putts Gained results to determine performance in relation to the degree of difficulty in the courses played and in relation to their skill level versus other players on Tour. It is an intensive application of mathematical modelling to make inferences about player performance. Now, the techniques can make use of an invaluable data pool from Shotlink.
Newport's article has links to the actual MIT research paper putting results. His article compares current ranking of best putters with rankings based on the new stat methodology. The table shows a brief example of the stats differences (that is average putts per green in regulation versus the putts gained method):
| Player | Putt. Avg. | Putts Gained |
|---|---|---|
| Steve Stricker | 1st | Luke Donald |
| Anthony Kim | 2nd | Tiger Woods |
| Charlie Wi | 3rd | Ben Curtis |
| Luke Donald | 4th | Bryce Molder |
| Harrison Frazar | 5th | Brad Faxon |
| Greg Chalmers | 6th | Jim Furyk |
| Joe Ogilvie | 7th | Brandt Snedeker |
| Daniel Chopra | 8th | Brian Gay |
| Aaron Baddeley | 9th | Matt Kuchar |
| Vaughan Taylor | 10th | Aaron Baddeley |
Source: 2009 PGA Tour stats; ibid., J.P. Newport, Wall St. Journal
Under the Putts Gained measure, the 2009 leaders ranking changed to:
- Steve Stricker: 69th,
- Anthony Kim: 63rd;
- Daniel Chopra: 61st;
- Harrison Frazar: 54th;
- Joe Ogilvie: 15th;
- Charlie Wi: 23rd;
- Vaughn Taylor: 47th
Stricker drops way down because his wedge game put him so much closer to the hole, it made his putting look better than it was. Brad Faxon climbed from nowhere to fifth -- a man who is almost universally recognized as one of the best putters alive. Faxon is who the other guys go to for putting tips, but his putting average looked bad because he left his shots to the green so far from the hole. Tiger climbed from 16th to 2nd under the new measure which is surely a more accurate match with reality. Interestingly, rankings for Joe Ogilvie and Aaron Baddeley were pretty much the same under both systems.
For Canadian fans, Mike Weir ranks 26th; Stephen Ames 29th under the Putts Gained stat.
The PGA Tour agrees with the MIT approach; the team is broadening their analytics to build a framework to measure off-green ball-striking performance. To the Tour, they've got this mountain of math so it's time to use it. Anything to add to viewers' understanding and appreciation for how really good their players are.
The MIT model is far more intricate and complex than I have time or space to go into here. For more details on the Putts Gained estimation and the approacch MIT is taking, check out Mr. Newton's article. A full chart, summarizing Putts Gained; Putting Average; Putts Per Round; and Proximity to the Hole is provided for 225 Tour players. More articlles like this really add to an appreciation for the game.
Improved statistical performance data will benefit all players. Your ability to get better is only improved if you know your starting point and a sense of where your skills are in relation to your peers. More accurate performance metrics make for better performance.
2. James Lepp's Kikkor Shoes
It's official, James Lepp's Kikkor shoes are for sale, for real and ready for shipping.
This great Canadian junior, amateur and CanTour pro golfer has put his golfing career on hold at age 25 to turn entrepreneur. KikkorGolf is the brand and they have a kickass website, great looking shoes, great styles, great golf tips and a savvy marketing program. And hats and gift cards, too.
James is the first Canadian to win the NCAA national individual golf championship; four B.C. amateur golf titles and two Canadian Tour wins. And now he is putting his game on the back burner -- although he says he will play the Victoria tour event this summer -- while he launches his line of shoes.
I've tracked this story since last September (Golf Practice-zine Newsletter, Issue #16) and at last I can order a pair.
The website has been up for awhile, but now it is ready for business. There is an online store which I believe is the sole outlet for the shoes and hats at this time. For now, free shipping is available on all orders. In my opinion, the shoes look great and so do the hats. I had trouble picking the style I wanted but ended up favouring the Eppik-Blaze model.
A nice feature of the store was that it had a size guide. Measure your foot in inches and you could match your length to the nearest shoe size as a guide. If you screw up, shipping is free both ways. My order is in -- I will review the shoes later. Stay tuned.
A Training Star is Born
Under the Happenings Menu, check out the Kikkor Tips. James Lepp does a great job with his video instructions. I love the Saucer Pass demo. I had to try it at my practice range but it is going to take a bit of work. This I have not seen this anywhere else. This has got to be a James Lepp original. And you know, it works! I can't do it anywhere near as well as James shows it, but it actually helped my orthodox chipping from the fairway. It forced me to keep my takeaway low and smooth through the ball. Like James says, you have more margin for error. Try it, if you're a hockey player you'll probably relate to the split hands grip really well.
So, I strongly recommend James as a golf instructor. I'll let you know later how he makes out as a shoe salesman.
3. Srixon's Yellow Ball
Srixon has come up with a high-end golf ball and it's Yellow!. Who do they think we are, tennis? I've seen Tim Clark play it on Tour, he uses the Z-Star X version. I am amazed it has taken this long. It is the first non-white ball I have seen the men play ever. I know Paula Creamer plays a pink ball to go with her pink wardrobe, but women are different -- much more fashion-forward than men.
Pinnacle has made different colored balls for use by us hackers for years. I know, because my brother plays yellow Pinnacles and has for years. I get them for his birthday -- they are a little more difficult to find but hey, he's my brother.
I use yellow balls in my shag bag. I'm tired of losing balls on the practice green when me and some other guy share the practice surface. It is inevitable that his grunged up white balls would look identical to mine. I switched to yellow and have lived happily ever after.
Advantages of Yellow
- easier to see except in the fall. In the fall, you'll never find them in all those yellow leaves. But, you can't find white balls either.
- easier for television to track. I'm surprised that TV hasn't pressured the Tour to move to a ball that is more photogenic. I love it when the camera guys can track actual ball flights -- they are trying graphic overlays on some telecasts but that is like the American hockey broadcasts with that awful blinking puck.
- less likely to have your ball hit by another player on course who confuses his ball with yours and hits it just as you walk up the fairway. Nobody checks for ball marks, so colored balls would set you apart.
Marketing Hype
Srixon is now owned by Cleveland Golf, but you got to love the press release, they put out when the new balls were announced:
"...the Z-STAR™ and Z-STAR™ X Tour Yellow golf balls incorporate the science of visual perception with the psychology of color effect on the human brain. Science has proven that yellow is the most visible color in the visual spectrum and psychology has correlated green with calming and stress relief; therefore Srixon® has combined the two colors based on these findings to tap into the player’s mind and expand the benefits of playing a better ball".
You gotta give them credit, a new angle to differentiate their yellow from everybody else. And I thought it was just easier to see! Now, for $45.00 a dozen ($Cdn, your experience may vary), you can get peace of mind too.
For more details, see Srixon's website.
4. New Irons - Ranking Update
A Better Way to Choose Clubs- continued
I harp on the Ralph Maltby-founded Playability Factor as the best vendor-independent guide to golf club and component selection (see Newsletter for February 2010, Issue #21. I buy all my components from Maltby's Golfworks in Ottawa. No sooner did I praise the list for 2009, when the updates for 2010 Irons were released. The update is available from Golfworks or my downloads page (see link below). The table below illustrates some interesting comparisons and trends in new irons for 2010.
| Club | Model | MPF |
|---|---|---|
| Callaway | Diablo Edge | 968 |
| Callaway | X-22 | 854 |
| Callaway | Diablo Forged | 543 |
| Cleveland | CG7 Zip Grooves | 739 |
| Cleveland | Launcher | 751 |
| Cobra | King Cobra SZ | 789 |
| Mizuno | MX100 | 623 |
| Nike | Slingshot HL | 723 |
| Nike | SQ Machspeed | 755 |
| Ping | Rapture V2 | 899 |
| Ping | G15 | 844 |
| Titleist | API 710 | 838 |
| TaylorMade | Tour Burner | 520 |
| Maltby | Ke-4 U30 | 1014 |
| Maltby | TE Forged | 788 |
| Maltby | KE-4 SS1 | 752 |
Source: 2009 & 2010 MPF Update, ralphmaltby.com
MPF values of 700-900 are what Maltby would call "Super Game Improvement" clubs; MPF of 900 or greater are "Ultra Game Improvement" clubs. In general these game improvement categories have the following characteristics:
- more weight in the sole of the club -- right down near the ground. That is, a lower center of gravity.
- this weight is low, but also placed closer to the shaft of the club, near the hosel of the iron, and;
- the weight is balanced between the heel and the toe of the club face so that there is a high tolerance for miss-hits. The affect of striking the ball off the heel or toe will result in less deflection from your intended target. That is, a higher MOI or moment of inertia than clubs with lower MPF values.
The other cool factor, from my point of view is that, for the first time I can remember, the highest MPF factor belongs to a Maltby iron -- the KE-4 U30 model ( MPF value, 1014). It is the only Ultra Game Improvement category club for the 2010 table. In past years, I think Maltby has been primarily in the 700-800 range if my memory serves. I currently play KE-4 clubs from the 700 range, which I built from components 3 years ago now. They are very nice, but I have just ordered the KE-4 U30s. Proof will be in the playing -- I will test and report back, as usual.
It is nice to see a range of manufacturers begining to produce irons in the 700 and above MPF range. The time has come for easier to hit clubs. Both elite players and guys like me will benefit -- all golfers will benefit -- from more playable designs.
The MPF is the best vendor-independent guide you have for club selection decisions related to your game improvement. For more details, visit Ralph Maltby's site. Highly recommended.
5. Tiger's Coming Out Party
In a recent article, Vancouver Sun columnist, Douglas Todd describes the underlying psychological basis for Tiger Woods' fall from grace as narcissism. The main signs of this lay in his rampant sexual adventures and his self-described sense of entitlement.
If Tiger's upcoming news conference at the Masters is to be another step forward towards Woods re-gaining his place as chief golfing idol to the masses, a major problem will be that the attention gained in front of the spotlight feeds his narcissism, not his recovery. Psychologists say that narcissism arises from the compulsion to be the center of attention and to be loved by those around you. Narcissists believe they are indeed special and that normal rules don't and should not apply to them.
Douglas Todd's article claims this narcissistic tendency makes Tiger a product of his times, but his tendencies were nurtured to excess by his parents' unrealistic statements claiming he was the second coming. Earl and Kultida Woods made references to the press of Tiger as a true prodigal son -- a figure that would benefit all mankind. They fed their son's ego and his narcissism flowered.
The article is an interesting take on what Tiger faces in his comeback. What transpires at Tiger's news conference at the Masters is placed in a new light:
- if narcissism is at the root of his behavior, then coming out at this venue, the grand central of golf spotlight exposure, has the potential of reinforcing the Jekyll-Hyde imbalance in Tiger.
- I think the fact Tiger is rumoured to have encouraged Elin to join him at Augusta is another sign of Tiger's lack of commitment to recovery. It isn't up to Elin to support Tiger. Elin is the one who has suffered through Tiger's behavior, not the other way around.
- I hope Elin stays well clear of Augusta. Tiger should be on a short leash. He gets time off for good behavior. Good behavior represents good conduct; his actions will prove his devotion to his marriage, Tiger should prove himself in her eyes.
- rather than prove his commitment to Elin, I think Tiger's appearance at Augusta has more to do with sucking up to sponsors and restoring his image. It has little to do with saving Tiger's marriage.
- if Douglas Todd's article is right, Tiger getting back into the spotlight will lead to feeding his ego and draw Tiger back to fans's adulation, not restore Elin's trust.
I'm pretty cynical and have been made more so by the whole aura around Tiger's managed comeback. His February 19 news conference seemed so artificial; staged amongst a hand-picked group of friends and family. No questions from anyone; a very stiff, wooden speech. Then two interviews of 5-6 minutes by ESPN and the Golfchannel where he deflected questions about the accident by referring to the police report, giving well-rehearsed answers to interviews that had little chance to prepare their questions. More image crafting from a team devoted to managing a brand, not humanizing an athlete to his frozen fan base.
The Masters Tournament Committee must be ecstatic that Tiger chose them for his coming out party. The choice was strategic and ironic. The site of Tiger's first major victory, where he exalted over pricking the barriers of racial discrimination; exclusionary memberships; against golf's hushed history of elitist clubiness and participation by black athletes. Now this site becomes his refuge; where rigid controls limit access by the press; where errant opinions and behavior warrant ushering from the grounds, revoking of press passes and outright banishment from broadcasting a description of "bikini-waxed greens" Tiger's four green jackets make him a member in good standing. Entitled to full perks and privileges.
Golf is anxious for Tiger to come back. The PGA Tour needs him, TV ratings need him and many fans are bored without him. I'm sure the news conference will garner enormous attention. Whatever happens, Tiger will emerge from behind his self-imposed exile back into the spotlight. To me another irony is that as Tiger emerges from the shadow of shame he comes under another -- the shadow of Bobby Jones. Whatever comes of Tiger's recovery, he would do well to emulate a man worth remembering.
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